- Lead plume forecasting for balloon-based tracer campaigns with external partners, working within their data assimilation and forecasting process while developing in-house capabilities.
- Develop and evaluate plume forecasting capabilities over the 24- to 72-hour horizons required for a potential field study, and document performance limits and their implications for feasibility.
- Quantify forecast uncertainty, including ensemble spread, its growth over time, and implications for search patterns and instrument settings.
- Translate forecast results into observing-team requirements for viewing geometry, altitude, timing, and expected plume extent.
- Model detailed plume evolution to support numerical experiments evaluating candidate observing suites and sampling cadences.
- Verify tracer-campaign forecasts against observations and report where they failed.
- Run plume-resolving simulations of injected material from release through dispersion, covering scales not resolved by the global emulators.
- Translate plume-scale results into dilution rates, an effective source term, and a parameterization for the global framework.
- Coordinate with the experiment team on what plume-scale modeling can predict and what observations could resolve uncertainties.
- If a field study proceeds, serve as mission scientist by providing real-time forecast updates, go/no-go input, and sampling direction to pilots and instrument operators.
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